Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.