The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.