🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.